On 1 December 2007 we commemorate World AIDS Day for the 20th time. These two decades have seen this pandemic erupt and ravage, but this year, for the first time, good news is the title of the day.

2007 is the first year that the numbers are down. According to the experts, 33 million people are estimated to be living with HIV right now. Thirty three million is hardly good news for that many sets of families, friends, employers and care providers, but it is the first downturn in the numbers and that means something good is starting to happen.

The reasons why there are ostensibly fewer people living with HIV this year than there were last, is mostly explained by two facts. Firstly, the researchers made a mistake. HIV/AIDS experts for India previously overestimated the rate of infection. They tested the prevalence in high risk communities and from that misrepresented the risk in the whole population. Since India has over a billion people and is one if the fastest growing HIV foci in the world, this mistake affected the global estimates. A silly oversight, but one that’s discovery has only produced a brighter picture.

The upshot of this is that data collection and analysis is constantly improving and globally, it is better now than it has ever been. This means the folks in charge can do a better job of providing prevention, treatment and support for everyone concerned, because they have better tools to know the needs and demands of their population.

The second reason that the estimates are down is that real change is underway. This is really a positive development and the result of years of efforts on all fronts. This year, an estimated 2.5 million people will be newly infected with HIV. In the mid-1990’s there were an estimated 3 million and more new cases each year. Studies show that new HIV infections are slowing coming down in Sub-Saharan Africa, while massive efforts are trying to curb growing epidemics in Central Asia and Eastern Europe.

The exact numbers will never be known because in some communities people still live and die with HIV/AIDS without ever being diagnosed, treated or assisted in any way. This is true for a large amount of people in poorer countries, but is not uncommon in richer countries either. It will continue this way until the shame and blame that societies associate with HIV is replaced with responsibility and quality, ongoing sex education. This is why the 2007 World AIDS Day theme is leadership.

At present, it is estimated that over 6,800 new HIV infections occur every single day. More than 5,700 people die of AIDS daily. In every country and territory, the virus that causes AIDS is perpetrating itself, acting completely without bias and without discrimination. Perhaps if we could try to be as free of judgment, we’d manage to beat this epidemic down to the minimal level that our technology, medicine and communication availabilities could allow it to be. 


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